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Secretary Chu: We Can Win Clean Energy Battle - Seven trillion dollars are at stake in the global battle to win market share in renewable energy and the United States can win that battle, U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu said during stops in Colorado.

Let's see, Secretary Chu is touring a GE facility.  Would that be the same GE that paid no corporate income tax? 

Secretary Chu insists America must invest federal money into the renewable energy market for it to work.  Only thing is, federal money is taken from the taxpayers effectively by coercion so it can be invested in plants such as GE's so they can avoid income taxes, Solyndra and Beacon (both of which went bankrupt), and Evergreen which moved its operations to China where they can dump the toxic chemicals (from making solar PV cells) out on the ground.  When money is taken from taxpayers, they have less money to buy the things they need and want which decreases demand which is bad for the economy.  When money is taken from taxpayer businesses, they have less money to grow their business and hire additional employees.  The people left without jobs have to fall back on government assistance to eat and house themselves meaning more money has to come from taxpayers who are still employed or be borrowed from other countries thereby digging us deeper into debt.

Only in America would people with a "progressive" mindset compare tax deductions the oil industry gets to production-tax-credits and cash-in-lieu grants by labeling them both subsidies.  See politicians call a reduction in the growth of spending a spending cut whereas the poor sap taxpayers have to do cutout spending onsomething they actually want or need to achieve a spending cut.

Let's address Secretary Chu's statement that wind energy is now cost competitive with fossil fuels at 5.5 cents per KWh ($55/MWh).  No, it is not for a couple of reasons.  Natural gas is presently around $4 per million BTU.  The market heat rate in ERCOT is about 8,000BTU/KWh (gas based equivalent) making the fuel cost about $32/MWh.  Capital costs run about $0.6/MWh based on a CCGT plant having a 20 year life.  O&M adds maybe another $0.5/MWh.  That yields and around the clock power price of about $33.10/MWh.  When wind is most available, between about 11PM and 6AM, ERCOT power prices are routinely in the $25 to $26/MWh range.  So, no--wind is not economically competitive with fossil power.

If America wants to be competitive in the global renewable energy market, then we need to restructure our corporate tax system.  To do that, we need to cut spending on stuff that does not compete economically.  We also need to restructure our regulatory systems to eliminate onerous requirements that do not have any benefit or perhaps may even be harmful to competitiveness.

Secretary Chu just does not have a clue.

 

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member photo Great analysis, though the assumption that wind never blows during the day is a bit of a stretch. Sounds like you're suggesting wind isn't competitive with nuclear or coal (in Texas), but is potentially competitive with $4 gas (CC, not GT)?

However, if fossil fuel is competitive without subsidies, why is it subsidized? If we removed those subsidies, perhaps we could reduce or eliminate the subsidies offered to renewable generation. This would save the treasury even more money that we continue borrowing from the future to pay for today.
# Posted By Matt G | 11/24/11 2:42 PM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
member photo There are indeed times when wind blows during the day but the general pattern is that wind starts dropping off about sunrise until it is negligible after about noon time until sometime approaching 10 PM. The significant wind generation occurs between midnight and sunrise.

While there are times when the wind farms are making power during the day, there are also times when there is no significant wind production for a calendar day or two or three.

The "subsidies" for oil and gas are by and large deductions from income, much like any business has deductions for expenses and depreciation. The price of oil is too high right now for the O&G firms to make use of any of the production tax credits for marginal wells and enhanced extraction. DoE is not giving O&G producers production tax credits or cash grants. The developers and owners of CCGT or super-critical coal plants do not get PTCs or cash grants.

Dry up the PTCs and cash grants and see just how fast wind farm construction comes to a stop--it is not reliable and its variability requires that there be back up power and a considerable amount of conventional or nuclear generation on line to control frequency and power factor.
# Posted By Mark Wooldridge | 12/1/11 7:32 AM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
member photo Also, wind is not competitive with CCGT if the PTC or cash grants are removed from wind. $55 per MWh for wind versus $33.1 per MWh for CCGT is a pretty serious differential and that does not include the costs of long distance transmission construction. The only thing making wind competitive--ignoring the transmission--is the $22 per MWh PTC.
# Posted By Mark Wooldridge | 12/1/11 7:37 AM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
member photo It's very difficult to know the truth. For example, according to Platts, the average July-August 2011 heat rate for North Hub was 41,350 BTU/kWh with day-ahead at $168/MWh. In the futures market for 2012 power is trading at 19,575 heat rate, again for North Hub. 2010 in contrast, had an average of $54.50/MWh for the same period. These numbers are in stark contrast to the $33.10/MWh in your workup.

Regardless, the market would operate more efficiently without government massive government intervention. It's my preference that the pervasive subsidies offered to O&G through our tax code be eliminated before we increase taxes on more sustainable fuel sources.

Note that I strongly agree with you that CCS is a waste -- another taxpayer subsidy of an industry. Government (citizens) should pick outcomes, not means. However, in contrast, I disagree about nuclear -- it's simply nowhere near cost effective without massive taxpayer support.
# Posted By Matt G | 12/1/11 10:00 PM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
member photo You might want to check the Platt's numbers again. I know of a lot of ex-utility power plants within ERCOT that are 9,500 to 10,500. Simple cycle gas turbines vary from 10,000 to 14,500BTU/KWh site rating depending upon technology and the particular chronogical generation of the machines (that is "F" technology versus "E", "D" etc). Combined cycle plants run about 6,800 to 10,500 again dependent upon the chronological generation of the machines, including some that are involved in cogeneration. If one credits the heat from cogeneration, the overall thermal efficiency gets pretty high.
# Posted By Mark Wooldridge | 12/9/11 11:48 AM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
member photo Mark - The Platts numbers are correct. They don't reflect the actual heat rate of the equipment, but of the "market clearing" heat rate -- the equivalent heat rate for the wholesale clearing price. Implicit in market heat rates greater than physical heat rates is a shortage of capacity.
# Posted By Matt G | 12/11/11 5:42 PM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
 
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