NERC released its reliability projections for this summer (2009) today and the good news is that electric demand is down almost to 2006 levels.  The bad news, of course, is that the recession is the major reason for the decline in demand.

NERC is projecting an overall decline in demand this summer of 15 gigaWatts, or 1.8 percent from 2008.  This means that reserve margins for most of the country should be adequate, except for California, which, as is normal, will be dancing along the edge if the summer is very hot on the west coast.  California has not allowed any new nuclear plants and has discouraged coal plants for a number of years.  Renewables aren’t ready to pick up the slack, and aren’t likely to be for a number more years.

This temporary reprieve will go away when and if the U.S. economy recovers from recession and begins to grow again.  With the megatrends at work in the world and in the utility industry, in particular, you have to throw in that "if".  There are so many political, social, environmental, governmental, economic and philosophical moving parts at work today that any kind of projection closely resembles pure guesswork.  I recall in last 20 years projections that Kensyian Economics were supposed to have cured serious recessions.  We've seen how well that worked out.  I'm not convinced about a lot of political social engineering going on now, either.

But despite all the moving parts and highly dubious "certainty" of many politicos, some of us get paid for trying to read the tea leaves, so we'll keep trying.