Because “disruption is bound to happen” (prediction #5), “the first phase of the smart grid” (prediction #1) may not have ended yet and thus it may not be either “The Year of the Mayors” (prediction #3).
To let “The Birth of Retail Energy … Be Upon Us” (prediction #8), it is first necessary to shift away from the obsolete Investor Owned Utilities Architecture Framework and its exceeding complexity (due to a series of incremental extensions, such as the homogeneous smart grid of prediction #1) to the simplified, emergent and holistic Electricity Without Price Controls Architecture Framework (EWPC-AF).
Under an EWPC-AF based energy policy, traditional utilities will no longer have a responsibility to serve electricity. Instead they will have a responsibility to deliver it, as they become the regulated heterogeneous Smart Grid transportation (integrated T&D) only utility. In the customer facing activities, utilities will be replaced by competitive Second Generation Retailers (2GRs). To serve customers, 2GRs will be the developers of the killer applications, greatly simplifying the queries of prediction #7. To learn about 2GRs, please hit the hyperlink.
I end that post with a quote that says:
The Smart Grid architecting is a highly risky and costly one shot experiment which taxpayers will fund to extend the homogenous grid.
“The Galvin Electricity Initiative, decries the overemphasis on metering” is about the fundamentals of the power industry, which are best met by an intermediate architecture, where customers are able to elect metering or not, under a heterogeneous solution.
The winners, even without the stimulus funding, will be those who understand the differences between the two approaches. Innovative State regulators that promote the development of retail markets to enable complete and fully functional power environments will be in the winning team for their constituencies.