Over the past year or so, I’ve been a little dispirited. The constant news of sliding stock markets and jobs losses, after all, can put a damper on your day. It has all affected our businesses and us personally.

But the U.S. recession is expected to end this summer. That’s according to the National Association of Business Economists. Three-quarters of the 45 experts say the economy will turn positive in the third quarter. Most of the rest say that day-light will hit in the fourth quarter. An even smaller percentage predicts it will all end in the first quarter of 2010. Thank Goodness.

Their reasoning: The fall in housing prices will stabilize while the stimulus monies being pumped out will take root.

This financial thumping that we’ve had to endure has gone on 17 months. But despite the expected easing, the same group of economists says that the recovery will be modest when compared to previous recessions.

I report this news with some consternation. My colleague and friend, Warren Causey – a pretty bright guy – says that I’m drinking too much of the Kool Aide provided by the current wave of economic thinkers.

“Of course these are all Keynesian economists, so I'll wait and see,” Causey quipped to me. “If the Obamaites keep declaring the existence of trillions of dollars that don't exist, I still consider a Wiemar Republic-like collapse as a distinct possibility. Hold onto your hat, it ain't over yet.”

While I may be showing some of my personal side here, my real job is to critically assess these economic policies and how they will affect the lives of our readers. Believe me, I won’t get delirious from the punch. Having said that, I really hope Warren is wrong. Of course, he is also praying for a reversal of fortune. ###

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