Today, the average cost of running a mid-size gasoline powered car in North America is around $31,100 over four years, taking into account depreciation, fuel and other costs. The cost of running an electric car is around $42,200 over four years. By 2025 or thereabouts, the depreciation cost of a conventional car will still be less than an electric car over four years ($18,200 against $22,200) but the running costs for conventional cars will have increased so much that overall, electric vehicles become cheaper.
What's the catch!
Yes there is one....If the statistics are to believed, even running a “cheap” electric vehicle will be considerably more expensive than running a conventional car in 2011.
Putting aside your views on the credibility in these statistics- what do I think EV ownership will mean to our car obsessed nation.
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Leasing could become the standard, with manufacturers taking back vehicles for reprocessing after an agreed age or mileage. To reduce costs, vehicles may be jointly leased by neighbors or be owned by a car club. Journey sharing, organized and booked online, is likely to be commonplace. Vehicles will be seen less as status symbols and more as a way to get from A to B.
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Today companies timing the move to EV’s are considering an economic balancing act based on the timing of EV grants being phased out vs. the price of EVs that will fall substantially. Despite Judge Ernest Goldsmith's ruling in San Francisco last week, carbon trading or taxation is coming to a state near you soon! How we get hit in the pocket is irrelevant but for EV's the consequence is expected to tip the economic decision, for industry at least, in their favor.
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There will be a rise in mobility based web sites that help people plan long journeys involving multiple modes of transport. Web sites themselves may be integrated into much larger, more useful social networks that provide many services beyond person-to-person communication.
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Expected new value-added services in vehicles, such as in-built internet, vehicle location and electric vehicle point booking systems will merge together. These developments will necessitate greater cooperation between vehicle, telecommunications and EV charging companies.
Will this happen soon, I doubt it!
But I'm going to test the water with my neighbors and ask them whether they would like to club together and buy a Tesla!
For a 20MPG SUV, at $4.00/gal, that's $0.20 per mile. So, $0.20 * 100K miles = $20,000 fuel cost per 100K miles.
For a 30MPG gasonline car, at $4.00/gal, that's $0.13 (rounded) per mile. So, $0.13 * 100K miles = $13,333 fuel cost per 100K miles.
For electric at 4 miles/KWh (250WH/Mile), that's about $0.12/KWh / 4 = $0.03/mile * 100K miles = $3,000 fuel cost per 100K. So, that's $17,000 less, when compared to an SUV and $10,333 less compare to a relatively high-end gasoline vehicle.
Oil changes don't exist on an electric car. On a gasoline powered car, your recommended rate of change is 3,000 - 6,000 miles. Thats anywhere from 17 to 34 oil changes in a 100K mile interval. Which run $510 to $1020 if you change your oil for around $30 per trip.
As for transmission, rear-end or other maintenance, well, that depends heavily on how the electric car is manufactured. I can't guarantee that some electric vehicles won't have those parts, which also require maintenance.
So, I see an operational cost difference of anywhere between $10843 and $18020 if someone keeps a lower priced (sticker priced), gasoline engine but more costs over the initial 100K of the car.
If you're like me, you'll probably want to hold on to the car for close to 200K. So, you also have to consider all of those parts that don't exist on an electric car. Not to mention the pollution that doesn't exist running an electric car.
And, before you say "well, you're just passing the pollution to someone else." let me point out that electric plants can produce electricity a lot more easily and cleaner than I can. The government can impose restricter standards on the powerplants where they have to wait for me to buy another vehicle before I can be restricted. And after hours electricity is already wasted and that's when I would most likly charge so it's not like electricty production will be equally increased to match the amount of energy used by gasonline engines.
Now, before you mention the highest-end electric vehicle. I would like to point out that several big name companies are fighting for this new untapped market. By 2015, I expect electric car demand to be up and prices to be down due to "economies of scale". Right now, there is already, after federal and state tax breaks, at least 3 cars price in the $20,000 range. So, they're already becoming as affordable as gas and will soon be just as easy to acquire.