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Last week the WSJ told us that greenhouse gas emissions were headed ever higher compared to pre-industrial era levels.

This week, an op-ed shows the towering challenge confronting those who had tacked their banner alongside those calling for 80 percent reductions by 2050.

Given, our population will rise. Thus, to get down 80 percent, per capita emissions would have to reach 2.5 tons by 2040, down from 20 tons per capital in 2006. Steven Hayward, of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, opined in Monday's WSJ, that to achieve their alloted reductions, residential consumers total emissions would be about equivalent to that emitted by today's average hot water heater.

Now Hayward makes that point to show the sheer impossibility of today's ambitions. One can look at the matter from a different angle. Rather, it underscores the need for game-changing technologies. We are talking about paradigm shifts equivalent to moving from horses to autos, trains to planes, typewriters to computers. telegraph to telephone to Internet. It will happen. You can take that to the bank.

Energy mid-century for those of us still around will make today's technologies look - primitive.

Also worth reading is today's lead story in the Marketplace section of the WSJ: Utilities, Plug-IN cars - Near Collision? The most important fact in the piece is buried toward the end. Today's power plants could meet the electricity needs of 73 percent of the light vehicles in the US if they were plug-in hybrids. That assumes they would be plugged in while the moon shines and demand is low. And here is a perfect example of paradigm shift. TODAY's COAL FIRED electric plants running full out to power an auto fleet would lead to a cut in GHG emissions because even the old coal clunkers are more efficient than oil guzzling cars when it comes to emissions.

Greenhouse gas crisis skeptics might want to think about this - the potential of converting to a mode of living that makes more efficient use of today's power plants. And environmentalists may want to consider that their kneejerk aversion to coal may be off-base if coal burning can power an electric hybrid fleet that helps wean us from imported oil in an environmentally friendly way. To find the truth we may have to wander from the camp of the extreme environmentalists AND the camp of the head-in-the-sand deniers of human induced climate change. The truth is elusive and everyone may just have a precious piece of it. Exciting times indeed.

member photo Good luck. You're going to need it. Fortunately, I won't be there to worry about who's going to pay for all this. Someone needs to remember that you can only tax up to 100% of personal income, But I guess world-changers will figure out a way to get around even that law of economics, not to mention a whole bunch of physical laws.

Best,

Warren
# Posted By Warren Causey | 5/2/08 9:08 AM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
member photo A thoughtful and balanced post, as always Martin.

Warren, I don't buy your suggestion that such radical changes in technology AND behaviors aren't going to happen. From my perspective, the question is how much duress will be required to compel those changes. I think we're only beginning to feel the acute impact of our oil supply challenges and the impact of GhG issues still remains abstract for average people. That is, the only "evidence" of climate change is a lot of worried looking scientists and some peculiar localized concerns like the pine beetle problem in the west.

But if salt water starts coming over people's front door thresholds I think we'll all be amazed at how that gets the public's attention, and what we're capable of achieving with our back to the wall.

Mark Lazen
Managing Editor, The Energy Collective
http://www.theenergycollective.com
# Posted By Mark Lazen | 5/7/08 1:23 PM | Report This Comment as Foul/Inappropriate
 
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