Last week we blogged:
"It seems that estimates of coal reserves in the US may be vastly overstated - according to recent studies and experts - and a front page Wall Street Journal article on Monday. The share of US coal reserves that is recoverable may be half - half - of government estimates, some now say. In the largest coal field in the nation, in Wyoming, only 6 percent of its coal beds can be extracted at a profit."
And yesterday, the NY Times reported:
"Estimated natural gas reserves rose to 2,074 trillion cubic feet in 2008, from 1,532 trillion cubic feet in 2006, when the last report was issued. This includes the proven reserves compiled by the Energy Department of 237 trillion cubic feet, as well as the sum of the nation’s probable, possible and speculative reserves."
Talk about book ends. One week prospects - admittedly long-range prospects - for coal dim. The next, week, we learn that natural gas supplies are abundant. Indeed, the new gas study shows the largest potential jump in gas supplies in the 44 year history of the study.
These things were in the back of my mind yesterday when I talked to the head of the New Jersey based mega-utility, PSE&G. Ralph Izzo. a nuclear physicist, has some interesting things to say about the outlook of a utility exec charged with keeping the lights on in a most uncertain political climate. The full exchange will be reported in an upcoming issue of EnergyBiz. For this blog, it was interesting that he noted that his company gets 25 percent of its electricity generated from coal - about half of the national average [coal is used to create half of our nation's power]. Because his company's share is less than the national average, Izzo sees his company benefitting from Congressional passage of carbon cap and trade legislation. He views efficiency measures as a way of addressing demand growth, renewables as a means of peak shaving and natural gas generation crucial as his company gets ready to build nuclear.
As the prospects for coal seem to blacken Izzo and others craft their long-term strategies.
Worth noting: Gazprom - that monolithic Russian gas giant? You think they are not watching the rest of the world moving toward carbon emissions reductions? The Times reports today that Gazprom thinks it could earn $6 billion to $9 billion selling credits tied to its investment in carbon emissions cutting technology.